Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
